By Huang Jiayu, Xu Juanjuan
黃嘉瑜 徐娟娟
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on August 14 that he will not run for the September presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which means he will step down as prime minister after a new LDP president is elected. During Kishida's term, Japan has been trying tirelessly to break away from the post-WWII system and accelerate its military development, displaying a series of dangerous tendencies in strategic adjustment, operations, and military buildup.
8月14日，日本首相岸田文雄宣布，將不參加9月舉行的自民黨總裁選舉。這意味著自民黨新總裁選出后，岸田將退任日本首相?；仡櫚短飯?zhí)政這些年，日本不斷試圖擺脫戰(zhàn)后體制，加速軍事力量調(diào)整與發(fā)展，在戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整、作戰(zhàn)運(yùn)用和軍力建設(shè)等方面呈現(xiàn)一系列危險(xiǎn)動(dòng)向。
In terms of strategic adjustment, Japan has issued a series of strategic documents to quicken the transformation of its defense policy. After Kishida came into power, Tokyo rolled out various documents to make major adjustments to relevant strategies. At the end of 2022, it adopted three new security documents – the National Security Strategy (NSS), the National Defense Strategy (NDS), and the Defense Buildup Program, declaring its commitment to obtaining the ability to attack enemies. Later, the Defense Technology Guideline 2023 and the Basic Policy on Enhancing Defense Production and Technology Bases provided policy support for implementing the new security and defense strategies.
在戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整上，出臺(tái)系列戰(zhàn)略文件加速防衛(wèi)政策轉(zhuǎn)型。岸田政府上臺(tái)以來(lái)，接連出臺(tái)各類文件，對(duì)相關(guān)戰(zhàn)略做出較大調(diào)整。2022年底，日本政府正式通過(guò)新版《國(guó)家安全保障戰(zhàn)略》《國(guó)家防衛(wèi)戰(zhàn)略》和《防衛(wèi)力量整備計(jì)劃》三份安保政策文件，提出日本將致力于擁有對(duì)敵攻擊能力等政策主張。隨后，日本公布《防衛(wèi)技術(shù)指針2023》和《防衛(wèi)生產(chǎn)基礎(chǔ)強(qiáng)化法》等，為新版安保和防衛(wèi)戰(zhàn)略落地提供切實(shí)政策支撐。
Moreover, the Defense White Paper 2023 specified seven fields of the fundamental enhancement of defense capabilities, including stand-off defense, integrated air and missile defense, and unmanned defense. The white paper, Defense of Japan 2024, further pointed out that the enhancement of relevant capabilities will shore up JSDF's short links in command and control, long-distance strikes, and logistics and replenishments, and reinforce its core capabilities such as unmanned defense, so as to maximize the usage of existing weapons and equipment to effect JSDF's fundamental change from being a "shield" to a "spear".
此外，在2023年版《防衛(wèi)白皮書(shū)》明確日本自衛(wèi)隊(duì)著重強(qiáng)化防區(qū)外防衛(wèi)、綜合防空反導(dǎo)、無(wú)人系統(tǒng)防衛(wèi)等七大作戰(zhàn)能力的基礎(chǔ)上，2024年版《防衛(wèi)白皮書(shū)》進(jìn)一步提出，相關(guān)能力提升將逐步補(bǔ)齊自衛(wèi)隊(duì)在指揮控制、遠(yuǎn)程打擊和后勤補(bǔ)給等方面的短板，增強(qiáng)無(wú)人裝備防衛(wèi)等核心能力，以便最大限度地利用現(xiàn)有武器裝備，實(shí)現(xiàn)自衛(wèi)隊(duì)由“盾”向“矛”的根本性轉(zhuǎn)變。
In terms of operations, Japan has stepped up its real-combat capabilities based on its actual situations. With the adjustment of the defense strategies, JSDF has continuously catered to actual operational needs, with a special focus on medium-and-long-range strikes, air and missile defense, and island-seizing operations that are highly relevant in real combat. The Kishida administration has especially promoted the construction of military strongholds on the southwestern islands, proposing that the JSDF should be able to quickly reach the islands in case of emergency by the fiscal year of 2027 at the latest.
在作戰(zhàn)運(yùn)用上，強(qiáng)調(diào)立足自身?xiàng)l件強(qiáng)化實(shí)戰(zhàn)意味。隨著防衛(wèi)戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整，日本自衛(wèi)隊(duì)不斷貼近作戰(zhàn)實(shí)際需求，重點(diǎn)關(guān)注中遠(yuǎn)程打擊、防空反導(dǎo)和奪島作戰(zhàn)等領(lǐng)域，實(shí)戰(zhàn)意味日趨濃厚。尤其在西南諸島方向，岸田政府更是持續(xù)推進(jìn)軍事?lián)c(diǎn)建設(shè)，提出最晚至2027財(cái)年，日本自衛(wèi)隊(duì)可在出現(xiàn)突發(fā)事態(tài)時(shí)迅速趕赴西南諸島。
In terms of military deployment, Japan stresses overall balance and agile maneuvers with a focus on the southwest direction. It has deployed a large number of troops on the southwestern islands, including Okinawa and Yaeyama, to enhance its control over the islands and the adjacent sea and airspace. In preparations and planning, Japan has set about forming an amphibious mobile brigade and reorganizing its ground troops for rapid response. At the same time, it has organized desktop and realistic "island-seizing" exercises to verify its defense and operational vision on the southwestern islands and enhance its off-island combat capabilities.
在軍力部署上，日本強(qiáng)調(diào)采取總體均衡、機(jī)動(dòng)運(yùn)用、突出西南方向的戰(zhàn)略布勢(shì)，在沖繩、八重山等西南諸島集中部署部隊(duì)，以增強(qiáng)對(duì)西南諸島及周邊海空域的控制能力。在力量準(zhǔn)備和方案設(shè)計(jì)上，其一方面著手組建兩棲機(jī)動(dòng)作戰(zhàn)旅，實(shí)施地面部隊(duì)的快反化改編，另一方面則通過(guò)組織兵棋推演和實(shí)兵“聯(lián)合奪島”演練，檢驗(yàn)“西南諸島防衛(wèi)作戰(zhàn)構(gòu)想”，并通過(guò)聯(lián)合演訓(xùn)，公開(kāi)強(qiáng)化“離島作戰(zhàn)”能力。
In terms of military development, Japan is aiming to fundamentally fortify its defense forces. To make Japan a so-called "military power", the Kishida administration has constantly increased the defense budget and security and defense investment. Japan's defense budget has been growing for 12 years in a row. The Defense White Paper 2023 proposed to increase the budget further to 2% of GDP in the next five years, on a par with NATO's defense budget level. It is said that Japan has already accomplished 42% of the budget hike as its defense expenditure is poised to reach 8.9 trillion Yen in the fiscal year of 2024, or 1.6% of GDP.
在軍力建設(shè)上，圖謀“從根本上強(qiáng)化防衛(wèi)力量”。為向所謂的“軍事大國(guó)”邁進(jìn)，岸田政府不斷調(diào)增防衛(wèi)預(yù)算，加大安保防衛(wèi)領(lǐng)域投入。當(dāng)前，日本已實(shí)現(xiàn)防衛(wèi)預(yù)算連續(xù)12年增長(zhǎng)。2023年版《防衛(wèi)白皮書(shū)》提出對(duì)標(biāo)北約，未來(lái)5年實(shí)現(xiàn)防衛(wèi)預(yù)算占GDP總值2%的目標(biāo)。據(jù)稱，該計(jì)劃如今已實(shí)施約42%，預(yù)計(jì)2024財(cái)年日本防衛(wèi)支出將達(dá)到8.9萬(wàn)億日元，占GDP比重達(dá)1.6%。
In addition to the incessant increase in the defense budget, the Kishida administration has also actively fostered aggressive military capabilities to, as it alleges, enhance its independent defense, in an attempt to form deterrence by taking preemptive steps. At the moment, the JSDF is purchasing more aggressive weapons while upgrading the traditional strategic weapons, fostering new combat forces, and developing high-tech equipment at a faster pace, so as to enhance its operational capabilities across the board.
不僅如此，在防衛(wèi)預(yù)算連年增加的支持下，岸田政府聲稱要強(qiáng)化自主防衛(wèi)，積極打造進(jìn)攻性軍事能力，試圖通過(guò)先發(fā)制人的打擊形成威懾。目前，日本自衛(wèi)隊(duì)在加大力度采購(gòu)進(jìn)攻型武器的同時(shí)，還在加快傳統(tǒng)戰(zhàn)略性武器升級(jí)改造，加速建設(shè)新型作戰(zhàn)力量并研發(fā)高技術(shù)裝備，試圖全方位多領(lǐng)域提升自衛(wèi)隊(duì)作戰(zhàn)能力。
While it is trying all means to break the restrictions of the Pacifist Constitution and hollow out the "exclusively defense-oriented policy", Japan has embarked on a development path deviating wildly from the pacifist route. Considering that Tokyo has never truly and sincerely reflected on its aggressive history and war crimes, its current dangerous moves in the military and security domains are indeed unsettling its Asian neighbors and the international community and call for high vigilance from all parties.
千方百計(jì)突破和平憲法框架，不斷掏空專守防衛(wèi)原則，日本的國(guó)家發(fā)展已嚴(yán)重背離和平主義路線。鑒于日本始終缺乏對(duì)侵略歷史和戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)罪責(zé)的深刻反省，其在軍事安全領(lǐng)域的危險(xiǎn)動(dòng)向，著實(shí)令亞洲鄰國(guó)和國(guó)際社會(huì)感到擔(dān)憂，應(yīng)當(dāng)引起各方高度警惕。
(The authors are from the PLA Academy of Military Science)
（作者單位：軍事科學(xué)院）
